Population Crisis, Will India Emerge Victorious?

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India has a population of circa 141 crore people, while China stands at handful crores less. Ironically, China fits into India 18 times. Now India is not only the world’s largest democracy but also the most populous country. Is it going to be the world’s biggest superpower? While most young Indians born today have a chance of living healthy and happy lives and can aspire to be doctors, business tycoons, or politicians, their Chinese counterparts are likely to be much less fortunate. What is their fate in a country with a rapidly ageing population and extremely low replacement level fertility?

Reports indicate that around 22% of the world’s workforce will come from India over the next thirty years. Experts are warning that if the nation fails to provide more skilled workers to the market, unemployment will be a massive problem.

According to a report published by the United Nations, India will overtake China as the most populated country globally. Today, there are approximately 1.412 billion people in India, while China slightly leads with 1.426 billion people. According to the United Nations, by 2050, the population of India will be around 1.7 billion people, while China will be populated by around 1.317 people in the same year.

The report went further to say that India was among the countries where the predicted world population would escalate by more than half until 2050. Further, the UN report added that the TFR, also known as the fertility rate of India, will decrease from its current value of 2.01 to 1.78 in 2050. The report predicted that the fertility rate would further decrease to 1.67 in 2100.

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Heads of the BJP, the ruling party in India, have been pushing to implement regulations and policies governing population control. However, the nation’s fertility rate dropped from 2.2 in 2015 to 2 last year.

Experts in both the economy and health departments advise the nation to carry out reforms in its educational, economic, and social policies. Lekha Chakraborty, who works at the National Institute of Finance and Policies, said that as the population of India increases, the Indian government would be forced to support more individuals. Hence, the productivity of workers in the country will have to increase significantly. In an interview, Lekha said that to achieve this increment, the Indian government will have to improve the quality of education and vocational training.

Lekha added that if the population shift happens with a reasonable labour force participation rate, it will positively impact the economy. However, with the growing rate of poverty and inequalities, the public finance outcomes of a spike in the population are crucial and cannot be shrugged off. Such implications include food, water, security, and energy.

Immediately skills development is required.

According to the report released by the United Nations in 2011, around half of the population in India was of a working age group. The report predicted this figure would remain so in the next 20 years. Sequentially, the working age group could incorporate around 183 million people into the working age group by the year 2050. Typically, these statistics mean that in the next thirty years, around 22% of the world’s workforce will be from India.

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One of the experts in outreach and population matters, Moye Ubor told EatNews that India will face a major crisis if the pace of skill development is slower than that of population increment. A professor at the International Institute of Population Sciences, said that more Indian citizens had to be included in productivity and that India should develop more skills in the future.

Over the past years, India has relied heavily on the service sector for growth. However, when compared to manufacturing, the service sector is way less labour-intensive. She went further and said that the number of skilled individuals in the IT, electronics, and green energy sectors has to increase significantly to tackle the unemployment problem.

Data released by India’s Center for watching the nation’s economy showed that around 17 million youth in India were ready to work. However, the biggest hindrance was the discouraging state of the nation’s economy. Today, most of the learned workers in India are complaining about the absence of job security because education is no longer a sure way of earning employment. According to Moye, future jobs will need highly skilled workers. If India doesn’t improve education quality, it will stand no chance in the future market. Amidst all this, the ageing population in India is also in trouble. Data released by National Statistics Organization have shown that in the next ten years, the number of individuals above 60 in India will rise by around 41%. John Jacob, who is well versed in public health, said that education and public health were highly crucial as we headed into the future. However, according to John, public health services were indigent in India, especially for elderly citizens. John concluded by saying that because of this, it was essential that education and public health be discussed more deeply in India.

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Sasha Webster is an Eat News correspondent in the UK. Her writing and professional background as a publicist for close to 10 years gave her an advantage in her work. She can produce bespoke website content that is useful to the target audience; matters business and finance, technology, real estate, healthcare, as well as entertainment pieces.


Eat News is a Taiwanese digital media, analyzes current events and issues through column articles, videos, visual aid, and exclusive interviews.

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